Thank you all so much for participating. More than 10% of the people that were at #cccamp23 particpated in the poll. This is huge! While there definitely is some sample selection bias, I am more and more conviced that there is little skewing in the answers themselves.
One reason for that is that while in the beginning the covid positive answer got more click, after around 150 votes, the level stabilized and kept the same until the end.
Unless there were some malicious actors, this indicates the results are a good sample of the population. The biggest source of bias lies in the fact, that answers are all from the fediverse and nobody else took part. However, from that I can't really determine what the bias would be.
This leads to the main point: This a damn high rate of covid at the camp. In our sample alone, this equals to 26 people that got covid at camp. This is according to whispers from people close to the organization equival to the total number of people having tested positive at the camp's test center and CERT. So maybe we are "lucky" and everybody that had tested positive at CERT was part of this poll.
But if we take it as a sample and project it on the whole population at the camp, we have to expect that there were 240 people at camp while having an active covid infection. Taking this into account, it is no wonder, that the camp turned out to be a covid spreading event. As from our numbers a further 240 people caught covid while at camp.
This totals to 8% of participants. This is extremely high. And by probability, that means that at least 22 people are likely to get some form of Long Covid from this event. I find this devastating.
I hope that this poll will help to make future cccamps and chaos events safer by leading to a broader discussion of how to protect the participants.
for what it’s worth, my group thinks I caught it on the Eurostar, as that was the only stage of the journey where I was on a different train to my companions and none of them got it, even though I had to share a sleeper train on the way back. Hopefully that means my masking and isolating prevented it spreading to other people in the camp too. Shoutouts to CERT for their support, and my friends for delivering me food during isolation
@TinaStormcaller In my group there was a case as well. The person got sick on Monday, so most likely contracted at the camp. None of the others in our group got sick.
I wish the only place the virus would move is away. I had to learn the lesson the hard way that next time I go on a train I need my N100 on, just as I do on aircraft, and that I will have to go to the next cccamp so I can hopefully have a better experience
@TinaStormcaller A good rule of thumb for travel and events is probably "mask up if spending more than a few minutes with a whole bunch of people in a confined space" - it addresses the biggest risk area and stands /some/ chance of being socially acceptable
I do think there's a reason to assume at least some "luck" bias: when I saw your poll I was like "I'm still negative but what if that changes" and didn't vote. I bet I'm not the only one.
Kill cars for climate!
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
One reason for that is that while in the beginning the covid positive answer got more click, after around 150 votes, the level stabilized and kept the same until the end.
Unless there were some malicious actors, this indicates the results are a good sample of the population. The biggest source of bias lies in the fact, that answers are all from the fediverse and nobody else took part. However, from that I can't really determine what the bias would be.
2/x
Kill cars for climate!
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
This leads to the main point: This a damn high rate of covid at the camp. In our sample alone, this equals to 26 people that got covid at camp. This is according to whispers from people close to the organization equival to the total number of people having tested positive at the camp's test center and CERT. So maybe we are "lucky" and everybody that had tested positive at CERT was part of this poll.
3/x
Kill cars for climate!
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
But if we take it as a sample and project it on the whole population at the camp, we have to expect that there were 240 people at camp while having an active covid infection. Taking this into account, it is no wonder, that the camp turned out to be a covid spreading event. As from our numbers a further 240 people caught covid while at camp.
4/x
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Kill cars for climate!
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
This totals to 8% of participants. This is extremely high. And by probability, that means that at least 22 people are likely to get some form of Long Covid from this event. I find this devastating.
I hope that this poll will help to make future cccamps and chaos events safer by leading to a broader discussion of how to protect the participants.
5/x
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Kill cars for climate!
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
I also will start a short follow-up poll on the weekend to see if the gist of the numbers changed in the mean time.
I am especially interested to see if more people tested positive after the camp.
Thanks again for participating.
6/6
Tina Stormcaller
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
Kill cars for climate!
in reply to Tina Stormcaller • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
@TinaStormcaller In my group there was a case as well. The person got sick on Monday, so most likely contracted at the camp. None of the others in our group got sick.
The virus moves in mysterious ways sometimes.
Tina Stormcaller
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
Martin Hamilton
in reply to Tina Stormcaller • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
Lars Marowsky-Brée 😷
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
Kill cars for climate! reshared this.
discontinuity
in reply to Kill cars for climate! • • •Content warning: re: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread
Kill cars for climate!
in reply to discontinuity • • •Content warning: re: #cccamp23 covid poll follow-up, thread